Bug Lottery plugin.......

[Fjordsen]

Now how many hands do I need to count how many times MacPower has won the lottery the past 2 months?

Just a screenshot I randomly took today after MacPower winning yet another lottery.

The last 9 lotteries, MacPower has won 3 which makes it a 33.3% win chance for him.

There has been times this map where Savathaflava and icy125 winning all the time. Even last map Dwarfers or Draconis would win 90% of all lotteries, the plugin has always been broken like this. The plugin seem to pick a name randomly from the past 100 winners or so instead of picking a name randomly from all players who bought a ticket.

 

[JacobBurkey]

Agreed, maybe they should make it so you can't win again until 4 more lottos go by?

 

[0xNaomi]

Funny...

Lottery draws now more random than ever!

Anyway, seriously, not surprised.

 

[Eldrylars]

Now how many hands do I need to count how many times MacPower has won the lottery the past 2 months?

Just a screenshot I randomly took today after MacPower winning yet another lottery.

The last 9 lotteries, MacPower has won 3 which makes it a 33.3% win chance for him.

There has been times this map where Savathaflava and icy125 winning all the time. Even last map Dwarfers or Draconis would win 90% of all lotteries, the plugin has always been broken like this. The plugin seem to pick a name randomly from the past 100 winners or so instead of picking a name randomly from all players who bought a ticket.

He bought 5 tickets which equates to 13% of all tickets in the pot are his. Those are pretty good odds and since they are odds it's not at all hard to get a lucky run and win several times. There are 7 other names in there that are not MacPower so how do you explain that if the "lottery is broke"? You can explain it as it's random and the more tickets you buy and the fewer tickets in the pot gives you a better random chance of winning.

Agreed, maybe they should make it so you can't win again until 4 more lottos go by?

This does not make sense. Imagine, you have won the first game of LOL. Since you are a winner you cannot play the next 4 rounds, just sit at watch. Even though you put your time and effort and won fairly, only losers get to play more then once just so there can be more winners.

@allwhoareconfused
It's a random chance raffle, it always has been. The more tickets you buy and the fewer tickets in the pot ups your chances of winning. If you buy 1 ticket and there are 1000 tickets in the pot then you have a 1/1000 chance to win. If you buy 5 tickets and there are 1000 in the pot then you have a 1/200 chance to win. Sure the 5 ticket player should win more often but being that it's random he may never win.

 

[Fjordsen]

He bought 5 tickets which equates to 13% of all tickets in the pot are his. Those are pretty good odds and since they are odds it's not at all hard to get a lucky run and win several times. There are 7 other names in there that are not MacPower so how do you explain that if the "lottery is broke"? You can explain it as it's random and the more tickets you buy and the fewer tickets in the pot gives you a better random chance of winning.



This does not make sense. Imagine, you have won the first game of LOL. Since you are a winner you cannot play the next 4 rounds, just sit at watch. Even though you put your time and effort and won fairly, only losers get to play more then once just so there can be more winners.

@allwhoareconfused
It's a random chance raffle, it always has been. The more tickets you buy and the fewer tickets in the pot ups your chances of winning. If you buy 1 ticket and there are 1000 tickets in the pot then you have a 1/1000 chance to win. If you buy 5 tickets and there are 1000 in the pot then you have a 1/200 chance to win. Sure the 5 ticket player should win more often but being that it's random he may never win.

13% chance to win, yet he has won 33.3% of the past 9 lotteries? Not to mention the countless of lotteries he has won the last months. Don't deny it, because it has been happening with people earlier that they keep winning all the time even though others buy just as many tickets.

 

[Eldrylars]

33% of the last lotteries does not really matter.

EDIT:
What does matter is his chance to win each time.

1. 13%
2. 7%
3. 23%

Those are some pretty good odds and since each drawing is it's own deal he has a very high chance of winning.
END EDIT

I hoped I could bat home that it's very likely that this could happen but I see that we are at opposing opinions.
We will just have to agree to disagree.

I cannot see anything broken with the lottery and I still have never won.

 

[Dwarfers]

Recently a player came to me saying he knows why people win repeatedly. According to him there is a way to figure out when to buy your ticket and that would be the winner. I'm not saying I agree but just throwing it out there. On Bastion I believe firebus won the most.

You can't really compare this map's lottery to last maps. They are different. Last map was every 24 hours and you could buy up to about 50 tickets I think for a semi small price. This map it is every 6 hours and you can buy up to 5 tickets for 100 coins.

 

[Dielan9999]

33% of the last lotteries does not really matter.

EDIT:
What does matter is his chance to win each time.

1. 13%
2. 7%
3. 23%

Those are some pretty good odds and since each drawing is it's own deal he has a very high chance of winning.
END EDIT

I hoped I could bat home that it's very likely that this could happen but I see that we are at opposing opinions.
We will just have to agree to disagree.

I cannot see anything broken with the lottery and I still have never won.

This. Pretty much.

Lotteries are independent of each other. If you buy 5 tickets, and everybody else buys less than 4-5 then your chances are better than theirs, and the more people that play, the less everybody's chances get.

So if a ton of people play, but you are one of the few that have 5 tickets, then while your chances are low you are the king of people with low chances!

 

[EvilThor]

-snip

Eehhm..
no that's not very good chances..
say that we did 50 lotteries that would mean he would win 3,5 times.
But we didn't have 50 lotteries, we had 10. Yea he had a bit higher chances than 7% some times, but still..
7% means that if we did 100 lotterys with the same tickets he would win 7 of them..
There is not only one person who buys 5 tickets, but yet there is one person who is winning much more than others, that seems like a boken plugin from my point of perspective.
(I don't even play lottery, but I still see this..)

 

[FuturizeHandgun]

http://www.random.org/quick-pick/ Is a site that is claimed to have the most "random" number generation. Thier idea is to Atmospheric sound to create random numbers. They are so confident that they have "true" randomness, that they have real time stats on their random generations. If they had an API or something, it would be sick to integrate their num gen to the lottery plugin xD Sadly some features requires duh moneys :/

 

[EvilThor]

http://www.random.org/quick-pick/ Is a site that is claimed to have the most "random" number generation. Thier idea is to Atmospheric sound to create random numbers. They are so confident that they have "true" randomness, that they have real time stats on their random generations. If they had an API or something, it would be sick to integrate their num gen to the lottery plugin xD Sadly some features requires duh moneys :/

Java got a randomizer integrated..

 

[FuturizeHandgun]

Java got a randomizer integrated..

what do you think the lottery plugin is based off...

 

[EvilThor]

what do you think the lottery plugin is based off...

I've not looked at the lottery code at all, but I guess it's based on the integrated randomizer.
But it may have design around the randomizer which may not be entirely perfect, and can give some strange results..

 

[Kainzo]

1) this plugin is open-sourced and uses the java random util. It is as random as possible on each draw - the only way it can be more random is by shifting the seed each time, which could have impaired results.

Math is hard, I realize this.

This uses a randomly generated seed and with some users buying 5 tickets every 4 hours - it makes it extremely more likely they will win.

If you want to win, buy max tickets, every single time.

 

[Xhazed]

I have heard from some people that if u buy tickets when the lotto is between 1k to 1300c its the best time to buy it, and if u also buy tikkets every single time then you have even more chsnces. But at the end i would not really know since i have never won one

 

[xexorian]

1) this plugin is open-sourced and uses the java random util. It is as random as possible on each draw - the only way it can be more random is by shifting the seed each time, which could have impaired results.

Math is hard, I realize this.

This uses a randomly generated seed and with some users buying 5 tickets every 4 hours - it makes it extremely more likely they will win.

If you want to win, buy max tickets, every single time.

^ this.

The idea behind randomized number generation is like:
100 tickets example:
roll a 100 side dice.
have 20 users each buy 5 tickets.
each user has a 5% chance to win.

HOWEVER,

if you had a bunch of users like say, 95 users buy 1 ticket, and macpower5 buys 5 tickets then he still has a
5% chance to win it, however, everyone else had a 1% chance. Analysts will tell you that he has a 5 times higher chance of winning than each user, which is correct, but that doesn't mean he is going to win. That's just a relative statement to his odds, not to his total odds of winning. His total odds were 1 in 20 in the example.

Macpower 5 randomly won it.

Further, depending on how it works, I'm pretty sure it assigns a # for each ticket, then randomly counts from 1 to # of tickets played, then picks a number.

If it works like this, then it will randomly select numbers between 1 and 134 tickets for example. This means if you're the last person to draw the last 5 tickets, and the 'dice rolls' a 95-100% or the highest number possible, you'll win. It also means that if the 'RNG' rolls a 1, you win if you were the first ticket. However, you will find that if you divide the # of games by the real # (by scaling them down to 1 in 100) that your draws will be completely randomized.

It would appear like a bargraph with equal draws from 1-100 and you might have a few numbers like 33, 66, etc. all draw more often, just due to the nature of RNG, however those numbers might be drawing 1% higher at this time, next month it might be 35 45 55 that drew higher by then. By an increasingly slim variation, and as you get to higher and higher numbers of games, the variation in the real # drawn will get increasingly slim until it's near infinitely spread, over time, equally to all real numbers between 1-100.

That's the nature of RNG. It is pure luck that people win multiple times. Some people claim wild accusations but they don't understand math.

 

[Keache]

The fact that this is in bug reporting... Lol